A climate of insecurity
by Jennifer A. Ng | Business Mirror Online | 09 JANUARY 2010
Sometime in May, mango producers belonging to the Mango Product Exporters Confederation Inc. (MPECI) complained that their output would go down by 15 percent year-on-year. The main culprit: erratic weather patterns due to climate change.
MPECI president Roberto Amores complained that early and intermittent rains, coupled with the early onset of the typhoon, is projected to slash mango production this year to 650,000 metric tons (MT), from 750,000 MT in 2008.
“Two years ago, mango production was at around 900,000 MT. The projected decline in [2009] production, will be the second-straight year that the [mango] sector will suffer a cutback in production,” said Amores.
Mango products are considered as one of the Philippine farm sector’s significant dollar earners. In 2008 MPECI said export receipts for mangoes reached $150 million, or an equivalent of P7.05 billion at P47 to the greenback.
Unfortunately, the plight of the mango growers in the Philippines is not an isolated case. The onslaught of two strong typhoons in the latter part of 2009 also proved that in one fell swoop, natural disasters and erratic weather patterns could undermine a country’s efforts to become food-secure.
Less rice, less corn, less pork
Studies conducted by multilateral institutions, such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB), pointed to the possibility the yields of irrigated crops in South Asia will decline significantly by 2050 due to climate change-induced heat and water stress. Maize production could be down by 17 percent, wheat by 12 percent, and rice by 10 percent. The resulting food scarcity is expected to cause in a sharp spike in food prices in Asia; as much as 37 percent for rice and almost 100 percent for corn by 2050.
This scenario, however, is already a reality in the Philippines. The onslaught of typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng slashed paddy-rice production by 1.3 million metric tons (MMT), or equivalent to 850,000 MT milled rice. At an average daily requirement of 36,000 MT, the damaged rice would have fed Filipinos for 23 days.
Before the onslaught of the two typhoons, government officials had estimated the gap in paddy-rice production at 1.4 MMT. With the destruction caused by the typhoons, the National Food Authority (NFA) was forced to jump-start its rice importation for 2010 earlier than usual. The Philippines had already bought 1.82 MMT of milled rice from various sources from four tenders which kicked off on November 4 and ended on December 15.
The possibility of importing as much as 3 MMT of milled rice was also not discounted by government officials if abnormal climatic conditions would continue to wreak havoc on the country’s farm production next year.
NFA spokesman Rex Estoperez said that while the figure seems “far-fetched” for now, changing weather patterns have made it harder for the government to estimate its current rice requirements.
“[Importing 3 MMT] is the worst-case scenario. We don’t know what would hit us next year or if we won’t have problems with the summer harvest,” Estoperez said.
As if the typhoons were not enough, the El Niño weather phenomenon is threatening to further slash rice production next year. El Niño refers to the unusual warming of sea-surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific that is usually characterized by below-average rainfall.
23 ‘vulnerable’ areas
The Department of Agriculture (DA) projected that around 23 areas will be “highly vulnerable” to El Niño, which is expected to last until the first quarter of 2010.
The DA noted that most of the areas that could be severely affected are considered major rice-producing provinces in Central Luzon, the country’s rice granary. Besides the palay subsector, corn production could also slow down due to El Niño.
Agriculture Undersecretary Bernie Fondevilla noted that areas considered “highly vulnerable” to a dry spell are Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Cavite, Rizal, Mindoro Occidental, Palawan, Capiz, Iloilo, Negros Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Zamboanga City, Sarangani and South Cotabato.
P40-billion losses possible
If the El Niño is worse than expected in 2010, the DA projects that 620,000 hectares will suffer and that losses in paddy-rice production could reach 2.36 MMT, worth P40 billion.
Fondevilla said corn is also vulnerable to El Niño. Losses in the sector could reach 1.26 MMT, worth P16.4 billion covering 350,000 hectares, if the dry spell lasts longer.
Besides palay and corn, Fondevilla said other sectors vulnerable to El Niño are coconut, which could impact on 610,000 hectares of production areas, and sugar cane, of which 30,000 hectares are vulnerable.
Erratic weather patterns are also expected to adversely impact on the livestock and poultry sectors.
National Federation of Hog Farmers Inc. (NFHFI) president Albert Lim Jr. warned that abnormal weather conditions threaten the livelihood of back-yard raisers who have yet to recover from the losses they incurred due to the diseases that ravaged their hog farms in 2007 and 2008.
“Too much heat could cause hogs to die while cold weather could cause pneumonia among hogs, and consequently death,” said Lim in a telephone interview.
Earlier, the NFHFI estimated the supply shortfall in pork products at 30,000 MT for 2009. Industry sources, however, pointed to the possibility that this gap has widened due to the damage caused by typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng, which ravaged major hog-raising provinces in Southern and Central Luzon.
While he would neither confirm nor deny this, Lim pointed to the increase in prices as one indicator of the tightness in the supply of pork products.
“Retail prices of pork in wet markets could even go as high as P200 per kilogram by January.”
When asked whether there is a specific government plan in place to address the impact of climate change on the livestock and poultry sectors, the NFHFI chief said he is not aware of any program that will help livestock and poultry producers cope with abnormal climatic conditions.
Adapting to climate change
The DA said it has put in place several measures to “climate-proof” the country’s farm sector. Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap said the department is setting its sights on “strengthening its statistics and forecasting capabilities, and developing and distributing climate-ready crop seeds which are submergence-, drought- and disease-tolerant.”
As information is crucial to help farmers determine the appropriate planting techniques, Yap said the government would also focus on disseminating information and knowledge.
The DA is also looking at conducting training on crops science and planting techniques. The government did not quote a budget for efforts to “climate-proof” the country’s farm sector. The DA, however, said it is setting aside a budget of P2.58 billion to implement a program that will counter the ill effects of El Niño.
The program calls for creating a task force that will oversee its mitigation program. It also involves cloud-seeding operations; installation of shallow tube wells, rain pumps and drip irrigation systems; construction of small water-impounding projects; development of water springs; provision of hybrid seeds, farm implements and fertilizers to farmers; and the distribution of animal stocks, biologics and drugs for livestock growers.
Besides the DA, the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) has joined the efforts to prepare the country for climate change. It recently forged a tie-up with University of the Philippines (UP) units to help other government agencies adapt to climate change. UP Los Baños will focus on the agriculture and forestry sectors.
Also, the Neda said it would prepare the economic blueprint for the next administration with “green growth” initiatives in mind. The agency is already laying the groundwork for the successor to the existing Medium-Term Philippine Development Plan, which will end in 2010.
Until these programs are already in motion and are actually working, the Philippine farm sector’s ability to feed the nation will continue to be at the mercy of weather and abnormal climatic conditions. n
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment