Technology alone won't save the day
Study: While green stimulus packages may push renewable energy and improve energy efficiency, other measures such as cap-and-trade schemes are needed to ensure a full effect in climate protection.
Morten Andersen15/05/2009 14:35
If efficient energy production gives citizens and industry access to cheaper energy, they will consume more. This is the short way to explain a phenomenon known by economists as "rebound effects".
A new British study shows that these effects are greater than previously believed – leading to a clear recommendation: policies that stimulate green technological development should be supplemented by measures such as cap-and-trade schemes that influence the behavior of consumers. Otherwise a large proportion of the benefits will be lost.
"The green stimulus packages being implemented to tackle the financial crisis in several countries all include investments in energy efficiency. They may be a lot less effective at reducing energy use than expected because of the rebound effect," Terry Barker of the Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research told The Guardian as he presented the findings at a Cambridge University seminar.
Based on economic models, the study investigates how energy use in transport, buildings and industry might change in the coming decades, while comparing two scenarios. One scenario includes energy efficiency measures proposed by the International Energy Agency, the other doesn't.
By comparing the two scenarios, the researchers are able to quantify worldwide rebound effects to 31 percent by 2020 and 52 percent by 2050. Meaning that increased consumption by consumers and industry will offset large proportions of the potential benefits from increased energy efficiency.
"Our new understanding of the rebound effect reinforces the case for price-based measures, such as carbon taxes and emissions trading, to control emissions directly," commented Steve Sorrell of the UK Energy Research Centre.
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