27 February 2008

Crossroads at Mmamabula: Will the World Bank Choose the Clean Energy Path?

David Wheeler

Center for Global Development - 02/15/2008

Original URL

Original Document

 

At the recent U.N. climate change conference in Bali, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called for a revolutionary change in the world’s energy mix to minimize the risk of catastrophic global warming. The Secretary General's invocation is a sharp break with past practice and an immediate commitment to clean energy development. However, the World Bank Group continues to help finance construction of coal-fired plants as if nothing has changed. This new working paper by CGD senior fellow David Wheeler focuses on the latest proposed venture, a huge coal-fired plant to be fueled by the Mmamabula coal field in Botswana.

Using the latest estimates of generating costs for coal-fired electricity and low-carbon technologies, Wheeler calculates the CO2 accounting charges that would make greener alternatives financially competitive with coal. In all cases, he finds that that the required "switching charges" are at the low end of the range consistent with safe atmospheric carbon loading. Among the low-carbon options that he has considered for Botswana, solar thermal power looks particularly attractive given its switching charge of about $35 per ton of CO2. His results suggest that the World Bank and other donor institutions will adopt a transformational energy policy if they use appropriate accounting charges for carbon emissions. The Mmamabula example indicates that this approach will select low-carbon options in many cases given even a modest charge, and that grants from the Bank's Clean Technology Fund and other sources could finance the market-cost gap between clean and fossil-fired technologies. Clean energy projects should proliferate, as donors learn about the new approach and more funds are devoted to meeting the global emissions reduction mandate.

Wheeler offers several policy recommendations for the World Bank:

  • Adopt an explicit carbon accounting charge that can be defended as consistent with atmospheric safe limits for carbon loading. In view of the current scientific consensus, it will be very surprising if this is below $50/ton of CO2.
  • Add this charge to cost estimates for all proposed fossil-fuel energy projects (oil and gas as well as coal), with and without carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). Costs should also be adjusted for local pollution factors, fuel supply risks and risk insurance.
  • Compare the results with generating costs for locally-feasible zero-emissions options, with an appropriate learning-curve adjustment. This adjustment is critical for huge institutions like the Bank, which can generate aggregate global demand large enough to affect learning curves.

For additonal context on this paper, see David Wheeler's recent blog post A Solar Future for the World Bank in Southern Africa?

© 2008 Center for Global Development.


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Reducing deforestation rates 10% could generate $13B in carbon trading under REDD

mongabay.com - February 25, 2008

Original URL

Cutting global deforestation rates 10 percent could generate up to $13.5 billion in carbon credits under a reducing emissions from deforestation ("REDD") initiative approved at the U.N. climate talks in Bali this past December, estimate researchers writing in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. But the researchers caution there are still substantial obstacles to overcome before carbon-credits-for-rainforest-conservation becomes a reality.

Reviewing the potential for REDD, Johannes Ebeling and Mai Yasué warn that the climate change mitigation strategy will face numerous challenges, including overcoming difficulties with implementation and poor governance in tropical countries; ensuring permanence of emission reductions; addressing international "leakage", whereby forest conservation in one country drives deforestation in another; establishing baselines for determining past rates of forest loss; and providing sufficient incentives to end deforestation. Ebeling and Yasué note that carbon markets alone will not save forests — the underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation must be addressed. Still the authors are hopeful that REDD "could help achieve substantial co-benefits for biodiversity conservation and human development."

 


Scenarios for potential global market value of RED credits at variable carbon prices and reductions in deforestation rates. Bars display global potential market value, and diagonal lines represent the contributions of Amazon countries. Carbon price €/tCO2: open bars, €5; grey bars, €15 and black bars, €30.

 

They write that the effectiveness of REDD will hinge on "how successfully a market-based RED mechanism can contribute to climate change mitigation, conservation and development will strongly depend on accompanying measures and carefully designed incentive structures involving governments, business, as well as the conservation and development communities."

Given a scenario, Ebeling and Yasué estimate that REDD in the Amazon — which accounted for 26 percent of global deforestation and 46 percent of related global carbon emissions between 1990 and 2005 — could generate vast sums for forest conservation.

For a 10 percent reduction in the annual deforestation rate, Ebeling and Yasué calculate that Amazon forest countries could see $1-6.2 billion (€690m-4.2b) in carbon finance, depending on the price of CO2 credits (the authors use a range of €5-30 [$7.50-45] per ton of CO2). A 50 percent reduction could generate $5.2-31 billion (€3.5-20.7b) in annual finance. Globally the authors project a 50 percent reduction could yeild $11.3-67.5 billion (€7-45 billion) in carbon trading vloume each year.

"Linking RED to international carbon markets could create a real opportunity to tackle an important source of GHG emissions at comparably low costs and could overcome the funding constraints that have hampered forest conservation for many years," they write. "While it is important not to raise unrealistic expectations about RED, overcoming the current challenges offers a historic opportunity of saving the remaining tropical forests while mitigating climate change."

Johannes Ebeling and Mai Yasué (2008). Generating carbon finance through avoided deforestation and its potential to create climatic, conservation and human development benefits [FREE OPEN ACCESS]. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2007.0026

Copyright mongabay 2007


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Brazil’s Energy Windfall

by Stephanie Hanson

Council on Foreign Relations - February 26, 2008

Original URL

 

Brazil’s Energy Windfall

President Lula drenches his hands in oil on a government-run rig off Brazil’s south Atlantic coast (AP/Patricia Santos).

 

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, boisterous and riding high just one year ago in his quest to spread a “socialist revolution” throughout Latin America, has quieted as that effort has ground to a halt. In December, Chavez’s bid to change his country’s constitution was voted down. An ongoing oil nationalization dispute with ExxonMobil, which threatens to freeze billions of assets (AFP) in Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, has raised questions about the sustainability of the country’s oil output. Most recently, major oil and gas discoveries off the Brazilian coast promise to substantially shift the balance of power in Latin America, chipping away at Venezuela’s energy hegemony.

Initial euphoria over the magnitude of the oil discovery, located in the offshore Tupi field, led Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to announce his intention to join OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Petrobras, the country’s state-run oil company, estimated the field had about 8 billion recoverable barrels of oil, and the broader area surrounding the field might hold as much as 100 billion barrels. The Tupi field probably won’t be productive for at least another five years, and it will be difficult and costly to develop, but the Economist Intelligence Unit says there are indications that the possible reserves might be even larger than the government estimates. In a region that is energy-starved—Argentina and Chile are both struggling with energy crises (Santiago Times)—Brazil’s finds will give it significant leverage. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brazil had the second-largest crude reserves in the region prior to the Tupi discovery.

Brazil is already a powerhouse in alternative energy; it produces a significant portion of the world’s ethanol and has worked to parlay its leadership in the industry into energy deals across the developing world. It hopes to create an international market for biofuels (PDF) that brings development to poor countries. As this podcast discusses, conditions are particularly good for developing biofuels in Central and South America. Last August, Lula and Chavez both made trips in the region, Lula touting alternative fuels, and Chavez offering energy pacts (CSMonitor). “There is this subtext of oil versus biofuels,” said Michael Shifter, vice president for policy at the Inter-American Dialogue. 

Brazil also seeks a leadership role in global trade talks. For this reason, Parag Khanna, senior research fellow at the New America Foundation, argues in the New York Times Magazine that Brazil is “reappearing as South America’s natural leader.” Yet Amaury de Souza, a Brazilian consultant, says the country has not developed a coherent regional strategy. Instead of focusing on global outreach, de Souza says, it should concentrate on improving relations with its neighbors (PDF). Others say Brazil should turn its efforts to what is arguably its most valuable natural asset—the Amazon rainforest. In Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America’s Soul, Michael Reid, the Americas editor of the Economist, writes that, “If China was becoming the world’s workshop and India its back office, Brazil is its farm—and potentially its center of environmental services.”

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations


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Climate secrets of marine snail

By Helen Briggs - Science reporter

BBC News - 26 February 2008

Original URL

 

The pteropod is an important food for many marine animals

 

It is one of the world's strangest and smallest sea creatures, growing to no bigger than the size of a lentil.

But the tiny pteropod, with its translucent shell, could help scientists understand how marine animals will respond to the stresses of climate change.

Thousands of the molluscs, also known as sea butterflies because of their wing-like lobes, have been collected from the shallows of Antarctica.

After flying the samples thousands of kilometres to her laboratory at the University of California, Santa Barbara, marine biologist Dr Gretchen Hofmann plans to sequence the animal's genome.

She hopes to find genes and molecular pathways that might predict how shelled creatures will respond to warmer, more acidic oceans.

"They're a shelled organism, they make a shell just like a mussel or an oyster does," she explains.

 

Pteropods (Image: Gretchen Hofmann)

Two Californian scientists collected the invertebrates in Antarctica

 

"It's a tiny, very fragile shell and we know that their ability to survive and form this shell is very threatened by climate change conditions in the ocean, a situation that's called ocean acidification."

Some of the carbon dioxide released from fossil fuels ends up in the oceans, where it combines with water to form carbonic acid.

As the ocean absorbs the excess carbon dioxide, its alkalinity drops. Research suggests that as seawater becomes more acidic, the calcium carbonate shells of pteropods become thinner and may eventually disappear.

Emission scenarios

Since the shell helps protect the creature from predators, it is unclear whether it will be able to survive.

"Currently, ocean pH is about 8.1, and some of the emission scenarios suggest that ocean pHs could go down to 7.8, which is very drastic if you're a little pteropod living out on the ocean," says Dr Hofmann.

She says the changed pH of the ocean threatens the marine snail's ability to pull building blocks for their shells out of the seawater.

"It's not the kind of a condition that animals can escape from; they can't migrate to get away from a global ocean that has a different pH, so it's a dire situation," she says.

"For the pteropods, we know from the work being done by climate change biologists that polar seas, the Arctic and the Antarctic, will experience very acidic oceans first, so there are some models and some estimates that say by the year 2050 it may be that conditions are such that pteropods will no longer be able to make shells in the Southern Ocean."

Food web

Given their role in marine communities as fodder for the likes of penguins, salmon and whales, the threat to pteropods could have far-reaching effects.

"They're incredibly important sources of food for fish," says Dr Hofmann. "At times, I've heard fishery biologists calling them the potato chips of the oceans."

Dr Hofmann's laboratory is using sea urchins as a model for studying how shelled organisms might adapt to climate change.

 

Sea urchins (James M. Watanabe)

The sea urchin may fare better in lower pH waters

 

Spiny creature's DNA insight

Like the pteropod, the sea urchin has a calcium carbonate shell. Unlike the pteropod, however, its genome has already been mapped, giving scientists a variety of molecular tools to study how genes are switched on and off during the shell-making process.

In the laboratory, scientists recreate a future atmosphere that has all the components of today's air, but three times higher CO2.

"We're using the IPCC emission scenarios for C02 as a framework to test these outcomes," says Dr Hofmann.

Their research has shown that sea urchins can make a skeleton at very high C02 levels by "turning up the volume" of certain genes by three to four times.

But this has an energetic cost to the animal, and they become more sensitive to temperature.

Genetic clues

Dr Hofmann and Victoria Fabry of the California State University, San Marcos, aim to carry out similar studies on pteropods.

They plan to extract DNA from the organism and use a new high-throughput sequencing method to study its genetic make-up.

The DNA is a "roadmap" for looking at the code for all the enzymes and other proteins that the body makes, Dr Hofmann says.

"If we know the DNA sequence, we have the 'secret decoder ring' to ask what genes are going off and on in this animal as it responds to the conditions around it in the ocean," she explains.

The scientists are interested in two categories of genes in calcifying animals - those involved in making the calcium carbonate shell itself and a suite of genes that respond to high temperature stress.

These "special defence genes" protect the cell from damage when temperatures rise, and are present even in mammals, functioning to rescue the body during a fever, for example.

"One of the things we know about climate change is that it's a double jeopardy situation," adds Dr Hofmann.

"We have warming and acidifying seas that will impact these animals. Our experiments are trying to help us predict what future oceans will mean for current organisms."


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Sumatran deforestation driving climate change and species extinction, report warns

Jessica Aldred

Guardian - Wednesday February 27 2008

Original URL

 

Logs being taken to a pulp and paper factory in Riau province, Sumatra

Logs being taken to a pulp and paper factory in Riau province, Sumatra. Photo: Dita Alangkara/AP

 

The destruction of Sumatra's natural forests is accelerating global climate change and pushing endangered species closer to extinction, a new report warned today.

A study from WWF claims that converting the forests and peat swamps of just one Sumatran province into plantations for pulpwood and palm oil is generating more annual greenhouse gas emissions than the Netherlands, and is endangering local elephant and tiger populations.

The fastest rate of deforestation in Indonesia is occurring in central Sumatra's Riau province, where some 4.2m hectares (65%) of its tropical forests and peat swamps have been cleared for industrial plantations in the past 25 years, the study shows.

Since 1982, about 30% of the province's natural forest has been cleared for palm oil plantations, 24% for industrial pulpwood plantations, and 17% has become so-called wasteland – land that has been deforested but not replaced by any crop cover. Twenty-five years ago, according to the report, forest covered 78% of the Riau province. Today it covers just 27%. In just one year, 2005-06, it lost 286,146 hectares – 11% of forest cover.

Illegal and legal forest clearance for the development of settlements, infrastructure and agriculture has traditionally driven deforestation in Riau, but the "speed and finality" of forest conversion for the rapidly expanding pulp and paper and palm oil industries is matched "by no other type of deforestation", the report says.

 

Satellite image of smoke from forest fires and land clearance in Riau, Sumatra

Satellite image of smoke from forest fires and land clearance in Riau. Photo: EPA The resulting average annual CO2 from forest loss, degradation, peat decomposition and fires between 1990-2007 in Riau province alone was 0.22 gigatons – higher than that of the Netherlands, or equivalent to 58% of Australia's total annual emissions, or 39% of the UK's annual emissions, the report says.

 

The report, a joint effort between WWF, Remote Sensing Solutions and Hokkaido university in Japan, claims to be the first piece of research to analyse the connection between deforestation and forest degradation, global climate change and declining wildlife populations.

It has analysed deforestation and forest degradation over a 25-year period between 1982-2007. By using satellite images to map land cover and usage it has identified the main drivers of forest clearance. Researchers used remote sensing analysis and two different land management scenarios to estimate historical and future CO2 emissions related to deforestation up to 2015.

Riau is home to vast peatlands that are estimated to hold south-east Asia's largest store of carbon, and contains some of the most biodiverse ecosystems that are home to critically endangered species such as Sumatra elephants and tigers, rhinos and orang-utans.

In the past 25 years, WWF says there has been a clear correlation in Riau between the clearance of forests and declining wildlife populations, largely thought to be due to an increase in human-wildlife conflict as animals are driven from their disappearing forest habitats.

 

Elephant, Riau province, Sumatra, Indonesia

Elephant numbers may have declined as much as 84% in Riau. Photo: Wayne Lawler/Corbis The report shows there has been a huge decline in elephant numbers – from an estimated 1,067-1,617 in 1984 to possibly as few as 210 individuals today. If this trend continues and the two largest remaining elephant forests are not protected, Riau's wild elephant population will face extinction, the report warns.

 

Similarly, figures in the report show that Riau's Sumatran tiger population has declined by 70% in 25 years, from 640 to 192 today. Unless the last remaining patches of tiger habitat are connected by wildlife corridors, these too will face extinction, the report says.

"We found that Sumatra's elephants and tigers are disappearing even faster than their forests are in Riau," said WWF International's species programme director, Dr Susan Lieberman. "This is happening because as wildlife search for new habitat and food sources, they increasingly come into conflict with people and are killed.

"The fragmentation and opening up of new forest areas also increases both the access and the opportunities for poaching. Therefore, a concerted effort to save these forests will contribute significantly to slowing the rate of global climate change, and will give tigers, elephants, and local communities a real chance for a future in
Sumatra."

About 20% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to come from global annual deforestation, which often takes place in the most biodiverse regions of the world, such as Brazil and Indonesia.

Indonesia's carbon emissions are likely to increase, the study predicts, as most future forest clearance will be conducted in areas with deep peat, which releases greenhouse gases when it decomposes or burns.

During December's UN climate change conference in Bali, the Indonesian minister for forestry promised to provide incentives to stop unsustainable forestry practices, and to protect Indonesia's forests. The governor of Riau province has also made a public commitment to protect the province's remaining forest. WWF is urging the government to uphold these promises.

"If the commitments by the Indonesian government are implemented, it will not only save its endangered species, but actually slow the rate of global climate change through the carbon savings," said Ian Kosasih, the director of WWF Indonesia's forest programme.

"If government and local industry were to create positive incentives for projects to reduce emissions by saving forests in Riau province, it would both protect the province's massive carbon stores and also contribute to the economies of local communities that are dependent on these forests," Kosasih added.

The demand for palm oil, which is fuelling much of the forest clearance, has risen in recent years to meet a global demand for biofuels.

Last week, the transport secretary, Ruth Kelly, ordered a government review of the environmental and economic damage caused by growing biofuels.

Ministers say a number of studies have emerged recently that question the environmental benefits of biofuels, and the government wants to check that UK and European biofuel targets will not cause more problems than they solve.

About this article

This article was first published on guardian.co.uk on Wednesday February 27 2008. It was last updated at 00:19 on February 27 2008.

© Guardian News and Media Limited 2008


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INTERVIEW - Rich Nations Should Agree 2020 Carbon Targets – UN

Reporting by Timothy Gardner; Editing by David Gregorio

Reuters' Planet Ark - 17/2/2008

Original URL

 

NEW YORK - The world's rich countries should set a goal of cutting planet-warming gases by 2020, not by 2050 as some have suggested, so businesses can get a clearer signal on actions they need to take to fight global warming, the UN's top climate change official said on Monday.

In UN climate talks in Bali late last year, Washington rejected stiff 2020 targets for greenhouse gas cuts by rich nations as part of a roadmap to work out a new global pact to fight climate change. The new pact would take effect in 2009, replacing the Kyoto Protocol.

Also last year, then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proposed a global target to halve greenhouse gases by 2050. The target was shrugged off as too vague and lacking teeth without binding targets.

But the 2050 date is still being discussed by some of the world's largest greenhouse gas emitters as a target for imposing reductions. Such a target would be too far off for businesses to start taking meaningful action to fight climate change, Yvo de Boer, the head of the UN Climate Change Secretariat said in a telephone interview.

He said 2050 targets would be an easy way for politicians to push the hard work of cutting emissions into the future because most of them would be dead by then. "2050 is in a way committing the unborn, and I think that the signal that businesses are looking for is where rich nations intend to be in 2020," he said.

Japan's current Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda is set to host the Group of Eight summit in July. He is under pressure on climate change and is likely to urge major emitters to each set targets for reducing carbon dioxide to be achieved before 2050, Japanese media has said.

De Boer said a 2050 goal is among the things being discussed by a group of major emitters led by the United States. But he said this could complicate the setting of a nearer goal that would spur businesses to start taking real steps on fighting climate change.

"If it's hard to fix the nature of something for 2050 when most politicians will be under the ground, how much more difficult is it going to be to be clear on 2020?" said de Boer.

"I really hope that the Japanese G8 presidency can provide a breakthrough on that sense of direction." he said.

© Reuters News Service 2008


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Indonesia's Riau province major greenhouse gas emitter

The Earth Times - 27 Feb 2008

Original URL

 

Jakarta - The transformation of tropical forests and peat swamps into plantations in Indonesia's Riau province is generating more carbon emissions each year than the Netherlands and almost half of Australia's, the World Wildlife Fund revealed Wednesday. The WWF study revealed that in Sumatra's Riau province nearly 10.5 million acres of tropical forests and peat swamp have been cleared in the last 25 years.

"Forest loss and degradation and peat decomposition and fires are behind average annual carbon emissions equivalent to 122 per cent of the Netherlands total annual emissions, 58 per cent of Australia's annual emissions, 39 per cent of annual UK emissions and 26 per cent of annual German emissions," said the WWF in a statement made available in Jakarta.

Besides carbon emissions, the massive deforestation in Riau, carried out primarily by global paper giants Asia Pulp & Paper (APP) and Asia Pacific Resources International Holdings Limited (APRIL), has caused smoke that has blanketed neighbouring Singapore, Malaysia and southern Thailand each year, causing an annual health and air traffic hazard.

Riau was chosen for the study because it is both home to South-East Asia's largest store of carbon in its peatlands, and also provides the natural habitat for critical-endangered species such as Sumatran elephants and tigers.

At last December's Bali Climate Change Conference, Indonesia's minister of forestry pledged to provide incentives to stop the country's unsustainable forestry practices and protect Indonesia's forests.

The WWF's Riau study was designed to encourage US corporate investment in measures to halt forest destruction in Riau to earn those incentives.

"This groundbreaking report gives US businesses a roadmap for getting the biggest bang for their buck," said Adam Tomasek, managing director of the Borneo and Sumatra program at WWF-US.

"An investment in Riau province would both protect some of the world's largest carbon stores and safeguard endangered tigers, elephants and local communities."

Carbon emissions are likely to increase, the study predicted, as most future forest clearance is planned for areas with deep peat soils.

"The loss of Sumatra's carbon-rich forest ecosystems is not just Indonesia's problem - this affects the environmental health of the entire planet," said Tomasek.

The report by WWF, Remote Sensing Solution GmbH and Hokkaido University breaks new ground by analyzing for the first time the connection between deforestation and forest degradation, global climate change, and population declines of tigers and elephants.

It has documented evidence that Riau has lost 65 per cent of its forests over the last 25 years and in recent years, the fastest deforestation rate in Indonesia, and during the same period has witnessed a 84 per cent decline in its elephant population and a 70 per cent decline in tigers.

"The message is clear - the world must commit to solutions that can save these forests if we are to significantly slow the rate of climate change and allow nature and people to flourish in Sumatra," said Sybille Klenzendorf, director of species conservation at WWF-US.

Copyright, respective author or news agency


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26 February 2008

Urbanization and Environmental Sustainability

by Crystal Davis

Earth Trends - Feb 25, 2008

Original URL

 

Now home to half of the world's people, cities are increasingly at the forefront of our most pressing environmental challenges. While the current pace of urbanization is not unique in human history, the sheer magnitude of urban growth--driven by massive demographic shifts in the developing world--is unprecedented, with vast implications for human well-being and the environment. However, where cities pose environmental problems, they also offer solutions. As hotspots of consumption, production, and waste generation, cities possess unparalleled potential to increase the energy efficiency and sustainability of society as a whole.

Global Urbanization Trends

Cities generate a disproportionate share of gross domestic product (GDP) and provide, on average, greater social and economic benefits to their inhabitants than do rural areas. As a result, increased urbanization often correlates to higher national incomes (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Economic and Social Welfare in Urban vs Rural Areas

Urban vs Rural Welfare

Source: EarthTrends, 2008

 

Among industrialized nations, city dwellers already account for nearly three-quarters of the population and will grow in number by less than half a percent per year through 2030, while the rural population will actually decline (UN, 2008). Cities of the developing world, on the other hand, will absorb roughly 95 percent of the total population growth expected worldwide in the next two decades, a result of rural to urban migration, the transformation of rural settlements into urban places, and natural population increases (see Figure 2). All together, over 1.5 billion residents will be added to developing country cities by 2030, many of whom will be poor. Already, one of every three city dwellers lives in slum conditions (UN-Habitat, 2006).

At the global level, these demographic shifts define a remarkable urban transition. By 2030, five billion people (60 percent of the global population) will live in cities and four-fifths of these urban dwellers will be in the developing world. Megacities--those with more than ten million inhabitants--will continue to grow in size and number, albeit slowly, especially in developing countries. The most rapid growth will occur in cities with fewer than half a million residents, which collectively account for over half of the world's urban dwellers.

Figure 2: Population Growth and Urbanization, 1950-2030

Urbanization Trends

Source: EarthTrends, 2008

 

Environmental Challenges in an Urban Society: Local vs Global Issues

Along with the many social and economic benefits of urbanization comes a plethora of environmental ills, some of staggering proportion. Cities span less than three percent of the world's land area, but the intense concentration of population, industry and energy use can lead to severe local pollution and environmental degradation. Furthermore, a city's ecological footprint extends far beyond its urban boundaries to the forests, croplands, coal mines and watersheds that sustain its inhabitants.

In the cities of the developing world, where population growth has outpaced the ability to provide vital infrastructure and services, the worst environmental problems are experienced close to home, with severe economic and social impacts for urban residents. Inadequate household water supplies, waste accumulation, and unsanitary conditions exact an enormous toll on the world's one billion slum dwellers in terms of unnecessary death and disease. Developing country cities also experience the world's worst urban air pollution as a result of rapid industrialization and increased motorized transport. Worldwide, urban air pollution is estimated to cause one million premature deaths each year and cost two percent of GDP in developed countries and five percent in developing countries (UNEP, 2008).

While cities in wealthier countries have already adopted policies and technologies to rectify many of their local environmental problems, there is a growing realization that human activities in urban areas can have significant impacts on a global level as well. In fact, the world's cities account for 75 percent of global energy consumption, 80 percent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and a disproportionate share of resource use, such as food, timber, and steel (UN-Habitat, 2007).

City dwellers in wealthy countries, characterized by some of the highest per capita levels of consumption in the world, are largely responsible for these trends. While an American city with a population of 650,000 requires approximately 30,000 square kilometers of land to service its needs, a similar sized but less affluent city in India requires only 2,800 square kilometers (UNEP, 2005). Similarly, urban residents in the developed world generate up to six times more waste than those in developing countries.

However, developing countries are becoming wealthier and more urban, bringing their consumption levels closer to those of the developed world. As a result, they are fast becoming significant contributors to the global problems of resource depletion and climate change (see Figure 3). The need to make cities more efficient and less polluting is hence more urgent than ever before.

Figure 3: Per Capita Resource Consumption: Current vs Trends

per capita resource consumption

Source: EarthTrends, 2008

 

Potential for Sustainable Cities

Cities present one of the great environmental challenges of the 21st century, yet they also have an unrivaled capacity to absorb large populations sustainably and efficiently. With proper planning and long-term vision, dense settlement patterns offer economies of scale that can actually reduce pressures on natural resources from population growth and increase energy efficiency. Because people live close together and need less space in cities, each person requires less critical infrastructure like sewers, electricity, and roads than in suburbs or other decentralized human settlements. Innovations in building construction, energy efficiency, waste management, and transportation are just a few of the ways that we can make cities mores sustainable.

 

Box 1: Innovations in Urban Mobility

Growth in both motorization and traffic congestion in cities affects both productivity and human health; each year nearly a million people die as a result of outdoor air pollution. In addition, road transport accounts for roughly 15 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, excluding land use change (CAIT, 2004). City planners in both developed and developing countries are responding to this problem, particularly in urban areas, by leveraging the unique economies of scale that cities can provide. Some examples include:

  • Communal bicycles in Paris. For a few Euros residents can pick up a bike at one of the new docking stations all over the city, ride it and drop it off at their destinations. In a few years the city will have a similar system using 2,000 electric-powered cars. These two initiatives are designed to reduce car traffic by 40 percent by 2020.
  • Congestion pricing in London. Automobiles must pay a fee to drive in London's central area during weekdays to reduce traffic congestion. Mayor Ken Livingston has also pedestrianized certain downtown streets, soon to become tree-line walkways.
  • Innovative policies in Bogota. Bogota, Columbia has restricted traffic during peak hours to reduce rush hour traffic by 40 percent. They have an annual car-free day, the only one of its size that actually enforces a ban on private cars. A few years ago Bogota also increased the gasoline tax, and poured half the resulting revenues into Transmilenio, a bus system that currently serves 500,000 of the city's residents every day.
  •  

    At the forefront of the sustainable cities movement are some of the modern world’s oldest cities like Paris, London, and New York. In New York, for example, per capita GHG emissions are now just one-third of the U.S. average (CNN, 2007). These efforts serve as models for cities in the developing world as they undergo massive growth and change. Since these cities are still at an early stage in their development, there exists great potential for sustainable urban planning, but there is also an enormous threat if early action is not taken.

    Given increasing responsibilities and limited funds, however, city governments must make strategic choices about which environmental and social problems to tackle first. This will require balancing immediately pressing environmental problems such as water and sanitation with long-term concerns such as energy use and climate change, while also reconciling the often competing demands of economic growth and environmental protection. The choices made in cities today will help determine the extent to which urbanization will be a positive force for human development and the future of the global environment.

    © 2007 World Resources Institute

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    25 February 2008

    US to set 'binding' climate goals

    By Richard Black  - Environment correspondent, BBC News website

    BBC News - 25 February 2008

    Original URL

     

    James Connaughton and Paula Dobriansky. Image: AP

    Mr Connaughton was part of the US delegation at UN climate talks

     

    The US is ready to accept "binding international obligations" on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, officials say, if other nations do the same.

    The comments came in a news conference in Paris given by James Connaughton and Daniel Price, environmental and economics advisers to President Bush.

    The US hopes the world's major economies will conclude a "leaders' declaration" before the July G8 summit.

    There was no indication of how much the US might be prepared to cut emissions.

    But the Bush administration is clearly looking for some kind of binding commitment from major developing countries such as China, India and Brazil.

    "The US is prepared to enter into binding international obligations to reduce greenhouse gases as part of a global agreement in which all major economies similarly undertake binding international obligations," said Mr Price, the president's deputy national security adviser for international economic affairs.

    Europe and the US could turn out the lights today, and come 2030 or 2050 we would not have addressed the problem of climate change - Daniel Price

    The United Nations climate process emphasises that different countries have "common but differentiated responsibilities" for climate change, which in practice has meant industrialised nations promising to cut emissions while developing countries do not.

    But the US officials suggested the phrase should mean something different - supporting the poorest nations, while expecting those that are developing successfully to take on some kind of obligation to cut emissions.

    "An effective framework requires the participation of all major economies, developed and developing alike," said Mr Price.

    "Europe and the US could turn out the lights today, and come 2030 or 2050 we would not have addressed the problem of climate change."

    Some countries might commit to firm emissions targets while others promised energy efficiency gains, he suggested. Commitments could cover a country's entire economy, or just certain sectors.

    Shuffling the decks

    The notion that major developing countries might take on binding targets might prove politically difficult, suggested Philip Clapp, deputy managing director of the Pew Environment Group.

     

    Logo for 2008 G8 summit. Image: AFP/Getty

    The US wants to conclude talks before the G8 summit in Japan

     

    "The White House knows that taking a binding target of comparable size [to that taken by the US or EU] is neither a negotiating option nor a physical possibility for the Chinese government," he told BBC News.

    He also suggested that an acid test of a leaders' declaration would be the timescale for making cuts.

    At the last G8 summit, Japan proposed setting the goal of reducing emissions globally by 50% by 2050, a target which Daniel Price said could potentially form part of the declaration.

    "It's become increasingly apparent that the Bush administration is willing to agree to a target that would take effect 40 years from now, and wants to portray that as a major accomplishment," said Mr Clapp.

    "A key question is whether the administration is willing to accept binding targets that take effect before 2020, because a binding commitment that doesn't take effect for 40 years is really just shuffling the problem off one more time."

    Trading plans

    The US comments stem largely from a process initiated by President Bush last year, a series of talks involving 17 nations that together account for about 80% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions.

    The "major economies" or "big emitters" group had its second meeting in Hawaii last month, and the next is scheduled for Paris in April.

    Environmental groups have criticised the process as a distraction from the UN negotiations, and because the developing countries involved have much lower per capita emissions than the US.

    But European delegates involved in the Hawaii meeting described the mood as frank and engaging.

    The EU and US are working together within the World Trade Organization (WTO) on a proposal that all countries should slash tarriffs on trade in clean energy equipment.

    "Some countries, in particular the major developing countries, have tarriff schedules as high as 70%," said Mr Connaughton, head of the White House Council on Environmental Quality.

    "We're trying to get the world to eliminate tarriffs, and that could increase global trade in clean energy technologies and services by up to 14% per year.

    "This is the single largest step we could take immediately to transfer available technologies to the developing world at very low cost."

    Mr Price suggested the style of dialogue between the EU and US, which he categorised as "the EU berating the US to do more", needed to change, with both blocs working together to ensure the participation of major developing countries.

    Richard.Black-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk

    BBC © MMVIII

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    Brazil's ecosystem payments system offers clues for REDD implementation

    mongabay.com - February 25, 2008

    Original URL

    Brazil's existing system for environmental services payments could offer insight for implementing carbon-credits-for-forest-conservation (REDD) initiatives in the Amazon rainforest, argues a London School of Economics researcher in a new paper published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B.

    Reviewing the performance of Brazil's Programme for the Socio-Environmental Development of Rural Family Production (Proambiente), Anthony Hall writes that "despite being fraught with problems, Proambiente is one tool among many which could reward small producers for enhancing carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation."

    Proambiente was launched four years ago as a way to compensate rural Brazilians for environmental services afforded by forests, including: "reduction or avoidance of deforestation; carbon sequestration; recuperation of ecosystem hydrological functions; soil conservation; preservation of biodiversity; and reduction of forest fire risks." Hall reports that of 4200 participating families, 1768 have received total payments averaging $325 per household to date — well below what had been promised to Proambiente participants. Hall said the program suffered from "the lack of a national legal framework, limited funding, reduced implementation capacity, poor cross sector collaboration and incompatibility with existing regional development policies."

     

    Still, says Hall, by offering farmers incentives that promote conservation rather than deforestation, Proambiente is an important departure from pervious government policies in the Amazon.


    "Official subsidies for Amazon settlement have historically encouraged deforestation rather than conservation. Yet [payments for environmental services - (PES)] could help alter this perverse pattern," he writes. "One such set of policies involves providing financial rewards to rural landowners and resource users who adopt environmentally friendly practices, ranging from outright conservation to sustainable development techniques. Financial compensation in the form of PES rendered would reward resource-users for their efforts to either preserve forests and other natural resources intact, and/or introduce production systems that generate economic surplus and sustain local populations without destroying the resource base upon which people’s livelihoods depend."

    Hall says that increased funding from REDD schemes could bolster and expand programs like Proambiente, while offering lessons for implementation.

    "The World Bank, for example, has set up a US$300 million [Forest Carbon Partnership Facility] to pilot RED schemes. Such initiatives could benefit thousands of poor family farmers in Amazonia and, indeed, the tropics generally, who depend for their livelihoods on natural resources but who struggle to make ends meet," he writes. "After just 4 years in operation and having achieved modest success, Proambiente has demonstrated pitfalls that threaten to frustrate the realization of this potential."

    "On balance, however, using PES to promote reduced emissions from deforestation could help avert the potentially fatal consequences of current development patterns in Amazonia upon both the environment and on people’s livelihoods. In spite of the many challenges which must be faced, therefore, it is far better to be RED than dead," he concludes.

     


    Carbon offsets versus other types of land use in the Amazon rain forest. Environmentalists and conservation scientists say REDD — a carbon offset mechanism approved during December climate talks in Bali — holds great promise for funding rainforest compensation while at the same time improving rural incomes and fighting climate change.

    Anthony Hall (2008). Better RED than dead: paying the people for environmental services in Amazonia [FREE OPEN ACCESS]. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2007.0026

    Copyright mongabay 2007

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    Biofuel flight 'a publicity stunt'

    Google News - Feb 25, 2008

    Original URL

     

    The world's first commercial aircraft to be powered partly by biofuel flew into controversy as environmental campaigners denounced the inaugural flight as a publicity stunt.

    The Virgin Atlantic Boeing 747 flew from London Heathrow to Amsterdam, with one of the four main tanks carrying 80% standard jet fuel and a 20% mix of coconut and babassu oil.

    Virgin Atlantic President Sir Richard Branson said the passenger-less test flight was a "historic" step towards using biofuels on commercial flights, with the aim of reducing carbon emissions.

    But he said fully commercial biofuel flights, still a few years away, were likely to use feedstocks such as algae rather than the mix used on the test run.

    The fuel was developed in partnership with Boeing, engine maker General Electric, and Imperium Renewables.

    Environmental groups say biofuel crops are raising food costs in developing countries, damaging the environment and displacing indigenous local populations.

    And they pointed to Sir Richard's calls for a third runway as proof of his lack of environmental credibility.

    The Virgin boss said his fuel was "completely environmentally and socially sustainable", with the coconut oil sourced in the Philippines, one of the world's top three producers, and the babassu oil taken mostly from a wild palm found in Brazil.

    Speaking at the Virgin hangar, with the vast aircraft behind him, Sir Richard said: "Today marks a biofuel breakthrough for the whole airline industry. Virgin Atlantic, and its partners, are proving that you can find an alternative to traditional jet fuel and fly a plane on new technology, such as sustainable biofuel."

    Greenpeace chief scientist, Dr Doug Parr, said: "This is a company hell-bent on unrestrained airport expansion, starting with a third runway at Heathrow which would almost double the number of flights from one of the world's biggest airports. Biofuels can often cause more damage to the environment than fossil fuels, and Virgin is using this flight to divert attention from an irresponsible, business as usual attitude to climate change."

    Hosted by  Google  Copyright © 2008 The Press Association

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    Smoke from Indonesian fires worsens air quality in Singapore

    The Earth Times - 25 Feb 2008

    Original URL

     

    Singapore - Smoke from fires raging in Indonesia's Riau province degraded air quality in Singapore, where environmental officials warned Monday of several days of haze. The annual scourge from land-clearing fires usually doesn't spew smoke over Singapore and other countries in the region until July.

    The city-state's Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) hit 53, exceeding the good range of 0 to 50. Readings of 51 to 100 are considered moderate, and above 100 on the index represents unhealthy conditions.

    Officials in Indonesia "know that we are concerned about this, and I hope they do something about it," The Straits Times quoted Minister for the Environment and Water Resources Yaacob Ibrahim as saying.

    Singapore has sent satellite images to Indonesia pinpointing the hotspots.

    Firefighters in the province are injecting water into peatland to help douse embers smouldering several metres underground.

    Choking smoke from the flames has blanketed parts of neighbouring North Sumatra and Jambi province and also covered the coast of Serdang Bedagi, forcing fishermen to stay indoors, the report said.

    The city-state pledged 1 million Singapore dollars (709,000 US dollars) in November to help prevent the Indonesian fires.

    Copyright, respective author or news agency

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    24 February 2008

    All About: Forests and carbon trading

    By Rachel Oliver

    CNN - February 11, 2008

    Original URL

     

    (CNN) -- Cutting down trees is pretty much one of the worst things you can do when it comes to climate change. Deforestation, by varying accounts, contributes anywhere from 20 percent to 30 percent of all carbon dioxide (C02) emissions -- around 1.6 billion tons.

     

    art.sumatra.forest.getty.jpg

    A worker collects timber from a rain forest in Sumatra, Indonesia last November.

     

    When you cut down trees you get a double whammy. First of all, they are not called the lungs of the Earth for nothing -- we clearly need trees so that we and other animals can breathe. Trees also are in the front line against pollution, breathing in millions of tons of greenhouse gases a year that they store in their trunks.

    According to the United Nations' Environmental Programme (UNEP), trees store a staggering 283 gigatons of carbon in their biomass. When that is combined with the carbon found in the surrounding deadwood and soil, the result is 50 percent more carbon than is currently found in the atmosphere. When those trees are felled or burned -- trees that are comprised of 50 percent carbon -- that carbon is then released into the atmosphere.

    According to the Council of Foreign Relations, the 2007 forest fires in the United States -- a relatively minor incident on a global scale -- contributed as much as 6 percent of North America's total greenhouse gas emissions that year.

    But burning trees isn't always a phenomena directly controlled by humans. Many believe that global warming is exacerbating the rate of naturally occurring forest fires around the world.

    "Natural variation suggests the Amazon should have serious drought-led fires at 400- to 700-year intervals, but today, they are happening every five to 15 years," the Independent recently reported. "It's a vicious cycle: cutting back the forests causes more global warming, which then burns up more forests, which causes more global warming, which burns up the forests even more, and on and on."

    There are currently around 10 billion acres of forest in the world, covering 30 percent of the Earth's land area. The world's forest cover is at least one-third less of the size it was before the earliest days of agriculture.

    Nations consider 'carbon trading'

    According to the U.N.'s Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), around 32 million acres of forests disappear every year, most of it in the tropics. The main reason for forest clearing hasn't changed in 10,000 years. As much as 80 percent of all deforestation is done because of the need to clear land for agriculture. The WWF is now warning that if nothing is done 60 percent of the Amazon rain forest could disappear by 2030.

    A recent UK study on the environment, the Stern Report, reached the conclusion that many others are coming to: If the world wants to curb emissions cheaply and quickly then it has to simply stop cutting down so many trees.

    One way to do this is to make it more economically viable for the countries hosting these rain forests to preserve them.

    Carbon trading was introduced as part of the Kyoto Protocol's goal to reduce certain industrial nations' greenhouse gas emissions to below 1990 levels by 2012. The idea was that countries whose emissions fall under the emissions cap -- the permitted level of CO2 equivalent emissions per year -- could then sell those carbon credits to countries who are not able to meet their own caps.

    The caps are supposed to fall over time with the price of the carbon credits, therefore rising due to scarcity levels. Proponents of carbon trading envisage a new global investment market based on emissions trading, where companies and countries have incentives to invest in developing world projects due to the highly coveted carbon credits they receive for doing so.

    With regard to forests, the idea is basically they should be worth more than they are. And countries (generally poor ones) who have the rain forests should be compensated for protecting them, particularly when they are under so much economic pressure to open them up to mining companies. Indonesia and Brazil now find themselves in the top four of the world's top polluting nations as a result (around 80 percent of Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions tally comes from deforestation).

    The economic argument goes that you make it more financially appealing to countries not to allow their forests to be cut down.

    "It's insanity that a single service company, Google, has a market value of $200 billion, while all the services of all of the world's great forests are valued at nothing," Hylton Murray-Philipson, head of Rainforest Concern, recently told the Independent newspaper.

    On a per ton of carbon basis, countries such as Indonesia can earn between $1 and $5 to destroy the trees, according to a recent article in the Guardian -- or they can earn around $30 (the market price of carbon credits in Europe at the time the article was written) for protecting them. Equally, a 2006 study on deforestation by the British government said that without action on this issue, each ton emitted could cause $85 of damage to the global economy.

    Can interests of both rich, poor be served?

    The real concern, however, is that carbon trading only really serves rich nations; the issue being that carbon trading could put the vital resources of the developing world in the hands of nations that can use carbon credits as a way to counter, or delay, reductions of their own greenhouse gas emissions at the same time.

    At the U.N. climate change conference held last December in Bali, Indonesia, the World Bank launched its Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF), a fund financed by the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Australia, Japan, France, Switzerland, Denmark and Finland (with The Nature Conservancy also chipping in).

    The $160 million fund, the World Bank says, will be used to "support programs targeting the drivers of deforestation and develop concrete activities to reach out to poor people who depend on forests to improve their livelihoods. It will also help developing countries build the technical, regulatory, and sustainable forestry capacity to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation."

    There has already been some confusion over the exact role the World Bank is trying to play in all of this. The World Bank says it wants to reduce global deforestation by 10 percent by 2010. But its critics claim the World Bank has traditionally been a proponent of deforestation.

    There has also been concern over the impact of the forest carbon trading scheme on local forest communities that earn a living from the forests.

    In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) the World Bank is facing opposition from Pygmy groups and local communities which rely on the Congo basin, the world's second-largest virgin rain forest, for their livelihoods, following a leaked report on the Bank's activities there. The report came from the Bank's own inspection panel, and it accused the Bank of encouraging commercial logging practices "based on exaggerated estimates of the export revenue to be reaped," while discouraging sustainable forestry and conservation at the same time, reports the Inter Press Service.

    The report has also found that the financial benefits of logging have gone to foreign firms, not local ones. The Pygmy groups and others are asking for these industrial logging practices to stop immediately and are asking for more assessments of the environmental impact of logging. (Logging was actually banned in DRC back in 2002; since then more than 100 new logging contracts have been issued).

    Environmental groups have responded to the World Bank's FCPF with extreme caution. A joint statement signed by more than 80 environmental organizations around the world in response to the the program queried its intentions, accusing the Bank of continuing "to undermine its own climate change mitigation efforts by persisting in funding fossil fuel industries on a global scale and enabling deforestation."

    They have also sounded their alarm about why the program has been pushed through too quickly with little consultation with affected communities.

    © 2008 Cable News Network. A Time Warner Company

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    Chomsky on the Rise of the South

    Noam Chomsky interviewed by Michael Shank

    Foreign Policy in Focus, January 30, 2008

    Original URL

     

    Michael Shank: In December 2007, seven South American countries officially launched the Bank of the South in response to growing opposition to the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and other International Financial Institutions. How important is this shift and will it spur other responses in the developing world? Will it at some point completely undermine the reach of the World Bank and the IMF?

    Noam Chomsky: I think it's very important, especially because, contrary to the impression often held here, the biggest country Brazil is supporting it. The U.S. propaganda, western propaganda, is trying to establish a divide between the good left and the bad left. The good left, like Lula in Brazil, are governments they would've overthrown by force 40 years ago. But now that's their hope, one of their saviors. But the divide is pretty artificial. Sure, they're different. Lula isn't Chavez. But they get along very well, they cooperate. And they are cooperating on the Bank of the South.

    The Bank of the South could turn out to be a viable institution. There are plenty of problems in the region. But one of the striking things that's been happening in South America for quite a few years now is that they are beginning to overcome for the first time, since the Spanish invasion, the conflicts among the countries and the separation of the countries. It was a very disintegrated continent. If you look at transportation systems they don't have much to do with each other. They're mostly oriented toward the imperial power that was dominant. So you send out resources, you send out capital, the rich tiny elite have their chateaus on the Riviera, and that sort of thing. But they have not much to do with each other.

    There was also a huge internal divide between a rich, mostly white, Europeanized elite and a massive population. For the first time, both of those kinds of disintegration, internal to the countries and among the countries, are being confronted at least. You can't say they're overcome but they're being confronted. The Bank of the South is one example.

    Actually what's happening in Bolivia is a striking example. The mostly white, Europeanized elite, which is a minority, happens to be sitting on most of the hydrocarbon reserves. And for the first time Bolivia is becoming democratic. So it's therefore bitterly hated by the West, which despises democracy, because it's much too dangerous. But when the indigenous majority actually took political power for the first time, in a very democratic election of the kind we can't imagine here, the reaction in the West was quite hostile. I recall, for example, an article - I think it was the Financial Times - condemning Morales as moving towards dictatorship because he was calling for nationalization of oil. They omitted to mention, with the support of about 90% of the population. But that's tyranny. Tyranny means you don't do what the United States says. Just like moderation means that you're like Saudi Arabia and you do do what we say.

    There are now moves toward autonomy in the elite-dominated sectors in Bolivia, maybe secession, which will probably be backed by the United States to try and undercut the development of a democratic system in which the majority, which happens to be indigenous, will play their proper role, namely, cultural rights, control over resources, political and economic policy, and so on. That's happening elsewhere but strikingly in Bolivia.

    The Bank of the South is a step towards integration of the countries. Could it weaken the IFIs, yes it can, in fact they're being weakened already. The IMF has been mostly thrown out of South America. Argentina quite explicitly said, "Okay, we're ridding ourselves of the IMF." And for pretty good reasons. They had been the poster child of the IMF. They had followed its policies rigorously and it led to terrible economic collapse. They did pull out of the collapse, namely by flatly rejecting the advice of the IMF. And it succeeded. They were able to pay off their debts, restructure their debts and pay them off with the help of Venezuela which picked up a substantial part of the debt. Brazil in its own way paid off its debt and rid itself of the IMF. Bolivia is moving in the same direction.

    The IMF is in trouble now because it is losing its reserves. It was functioning on debt collection and if countries either restructured their debt or refused to pay it, they're in trouble. Incidentally the countries could legitimately refuse to pay much of the debt, because, in my opinion at least, it was illegal in the first place. For example, if I lend you money, and I know you're a bad risk, so I get high interest payments, and then you tell me at one point, sorry I can't pay anymore, I can't call on my neighbors to force you to pay me. Or I can't call on your neighbors to pay it off. But that's the way the IMF works. You lend money to a dictatorship and an elite, the population has nothing to do with it, you get very high interest because it's obviously risky, they say they can't pay it off, you say okay your neighbors will pay for it. It's called structural adjustment. And my neighbors will pay me off. That's the IMF as a creditors' cartel. You get higher taxes from the north.

    The World Bank is not the same institution, but there's the same kind of conflicts and confrontations going on. In Bolivia, one of the major background events that led to the uprising of the majority indigenous population to finally take political power was an effort by the World Bank to privatize water. Take an economics course, they'll tell you that you ought to pay the market price and so on. True value, yes, very nice, except that means poor people, which is most of the population, can't drink. Well that's called an externality; don't worry about things like that.

    What the population did - and it was a big conflict, mostly in Cochabamba - peasants just forced the international water companies, Bechtel and others, just to pull out. It was supported by a solidarity movement here, it was quite interesting. But the World Bank had to pull out of that project and there are others like it. On the other hand, some of the things they do are constructive. It's not a totally destructive institution. But that's weakening too.

    The same thing is happening in Asia. Take the Asian Development Bank. At the time of the Asian financial crisis, in 1997-98, Japan wanted to work through the Asian Development Bank to create a substantial reserve which would enable countries to survive the debt crisis instead of selling off their assets to the West. The United States just blocked it. But they can't do that anymore. The reserves in the Asian countries are just too high. In fact the United States survives on funding from Japan and China, which subsidizes the high consumption-high borrowing economy here. I don't think the United States at this point could tell the Asian Development Bank, "I'm sorry you can't do this." That's somewhat parallel to the Bank of the South. Similar things are now happening in the Middle East, with sovereign funds and so on.

    Shank: With these institutions springing up in the developing world as alternatives to the IMF and the World Bank, what similar initiatives will emerge in the developing world regarding currencies?

    Chomsky: It's already happening. Kuwait has already made a limited move toward a basket of currencies. The United Arab Emirates and Dubai are moving toward their own partial development funds. Saudi Arabia, that's the big important one, if they join in it'll become a major independent center of funding, lending, purchasing, and so on. It's already happening. Investment in the rich countries and to some extent in the region, particularly North Africa. Separate development funds. It's a limited move; they don't want to anger the United States.

    Of course they rely on the United States in many ways, the elites. China, in particular, relies on the U.S. market. They don't want to undermine it. The same with Japan. So they're willing to buy treasury bonds instead of more profitable investments in order to sustain the U.S. economy, which is their market. But it's a very fragile situation. They very well may turn elsewhere and they're beginning to. I don't think anyone knows what would happen if the reserve-rich countries were to turn to profitable investment rather than supporting the U.S. high-consumption, high-debt economy.

    Shank: The West resists countries nationalizing their oil supplies and their gas supplies but that trend continues regardless. Where is this headed? Do you see all oil- and-gas rich countries getting together and establishing an alternative market?

    Chomsky: They tried with OPEC, which to some extent does it. But they have to face the fact that the West will not allow it to happen. If you go back to 1974, that was the first move toward oil independence by the oil-rich countries. Just read what American journalists and commentators were writing. They were saying they have no right to the oil. The more moderate writers were saying the oil should be internationalized for the benefit of the world. American agricultural wealth shouldn't be internationalized for the benefit of the world, but the oil of Saudi Arabia should be because they're not following what we tell them to do anymore.

    The more extreme people, I guess it was Irving Kristol, said insignificant nations like insignificant people sometimes gain illusions about their own significance. So therefore the age of gunboat diplomacy is never over, we'll just take it from them by force. Robert Tucker, a serious international relations specialist who is considered pretty moderate, said it's just a scandal that we're letting them get away with running their own resources. Why are we sitting here, we've got the military force to take them. Go back to somebody like George Kennan, who's considered a great humanist. When he was in the planning sector, in the late 1940s and early 1950s, he said harsh measures may be necessary for "protection of our resources" -- which happen to be in some other country. That's just an accident of geography. They're our resources and we have to protect them by harsh measures, including police states and so on.

    Take Bill Clinton. He had a doctrine too, every president has a doctrine. He was less brazen about it than Bush, didn't get criticized a lot, but his doctrine was more extreme than the Bush doctrine if taken literally. The official Clinton doctrine presented to Congress was that the United States has the unilateral right to use military force to protect markets and resources. The Bush doctrine said we've got to have a pretext, like we've got to claim they're a threat. Clinton doctrine didn't even go that far, we don't need any pretext. With markets and resources, we have a right to make sure that we control them, which is logical on the principle that we own the world anyway so of course we have that right.

    You're going to have to look far in the political spectrum to find any deviation from this. So if the oil-rich countries were to try to really take independent control of the resources, there would be a very harsh reaction. The United States, by now, has a military system; more is spent on the military system than the rest of the world put together. There's a reason for that. That's not to defend the borders.

    Shank: Do you think India will swing towards Russia and China as it positions itself in its allegiances or will it continue to cozy up with the U.S. post-nuclear agreement?

    Chomsky: It's going in both directions. Part of the purpose of the nuclear agreement from the U.S. point of view was to try to encourage them to move into the U.S. orbit. But the Indians are playing a double game. They're improving relations with China too. Trade relations, other relations, joint investment are improving. They haven't been accepted as members but they're official observers in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which is mainly China-based but is a big developing organization that could be a counter to NATO. It includes the Central Asian states. It includes Russia with its huge resources, and China, a big growing economy. Observers include India, Pakistan and, crucially, Iran which is accepted as an observer and may join. But it excludes the United States.

    The United States wanted to join as an observer. It was rejected. The SCO has officially declared that U.S. forces should leave the Middle East. And it's part of a move toward developing what's called an Asian Energy Security grid and other steps that will integrate that region and allow it to move toward independence from imperial control, Western control. South Korea has not yet joined but it might - another major industrial power. Japan is so far accepting its role as a U.S. client, but that's not graven in stone either.

    So there are these centrifugal developments taking place all over the world.

    Copyright © 2008, Institute for Policy Studies.

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    $1 trillion carbon market in the U.S. by 2020 says study

    mongabay.com - February 14, 2008

    Original URL

    The U.S. carbon emission trading market will top $1 trillion by 2020 if policymakers continue on their current path towards a comprehensive "cap-and-trade" program, estimates an analysis released at climate roundtable discussions at the UN General Assembly in New York. The U.S. market will be more than twice the size of the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme, presently the world's largest carbon trading marketplace.

    The study, published by research economists from New Carbon Finance, examined 13 climate change bills under discussion in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate and concluded that an economy-wide cap-and-trade system for U.S. greenhouse gases would likely begin operating within four to five years.

    A news release from New Carbon Finance explains how a "cap-and-trade" system world work:

      Under a "cap-and-trade" system, the federal government would ration the amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that businesses emit by issuing them permits. A business wanting to emit more than its entitlement may buy the right to do so from a business that emits less than its entitlement. The U.S. already has cap-and-trade systems in place for sulfur oxide compounds (SOx) and nitrogen oxide compounds (NOx).
      The biggest buyers of greenhouse gas emission credits will be large emitters, especially coal-burning power utilities, petroleum refiners and other heavy industries like cement manufacturers.

    Democratic presidential candidates Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama along with Republican presidential candidate John McCain have called for a domestic trading emission system in the hope of reducing emissions by 60-80 percent from 1990 levels by 2050.

    "Even if the current Bush administration rejects all of these bills, the next President will be less inclined to use a veto. All leading 2008 presidential candidates have endorsed the need for action and some have already supported significant emissions reductions," said Michael Liebreich, CEO of New Energy Finance, parent of New Carbon Finance.



    The top line (blue) illustrates how emissions might develop in the absence of any cap-and-trade programme (business-as-usual or BAU), and includes the expected impact of the recently passed Energy Bill, state Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and various other policies expected to reduce emissions outside of cap-and-trade. The bills included in the low and high-demand scenarios have been grouped together since their targeted emissions reductions are very similar (dotted grey line for low-demand scenario and solid grey line for high-demand scenario). It is interesting to note that the targets suggested by the US Climate Action Partnership, an important group of multinationals and other organizations aimed at pushing the federal government for action on climate change, are more stringent (see yellow area) than the Lieberman-Warner (solid brown line).

    The report notes that "bills before Congress either prohibit or severely restrict the transfer of allowances from trading systems in other parts of the world, including the EU's Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS), and the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) schemes." Emissions reductions in developing countries are generally cheaper to achieve than cuts in industrialized countries.

    A ban on international project credits would likely drive U.S. carbon prices to $35-40 per ton as soon as 2015, estimates the report. Allowing U.S. firms to trade credits with entities abroad — including credits generated about forest conservation (REDD) schemes — would reduce prices.

    "Excluding or limiting the inclusion of international project credits in any U.S. carbon cap-and-trade system will have two important consequences. For the U.S. market, it will rule out a significant source of inexpensive abatement, pushing the carbon price to unnecessary high levels. It will also remove most U.S. demand for international credits, hampering the growth of projects and technology transfer to developing countries," said Milo Sjardin, who heads the North American division of New Carbon Finance.

    "We believe that, to smooth the transition to a carbon-constrained economy, any climate change bill should provide for international project credits, currently available at $10 to $20 per tonne. This component can then be reduced over time to achieve greater emissions reductions within the U.S."

    The report forecasts the impact of various carbon prices on American consumers. Under a "cap-and-trade" system, consumers would see higher costs of electricity, gasoline, and natural gas.

    New Carbon Finance says that "any bill passed by the Congress is likely to include trade sanctions on imports from countries unwilling to participate in mandatory carbon emission caps."

    "Developed nations may use this measure as a negotiating lever to put further pressure on large developing nations to reconsider their position, i.e. their ongoing refusal to consider hard reduction targets," said Liebreich. "Although this arrangement seems to be a border tax adjustment it is possible that it can be done in a way that complies with WTO rules, provided a few conditions are met. Developing countries should bear in mind that even if they are successful in negotiating away the need to control their greenhouse gas emissions, they will likely face the impacts of climate change legislation through an indirect route, via their export trade balance, and potentially sooner than they think."

    Copyright mongabay 2007

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    Analysis: China conservation doubts remain

    By Siobhan Devine - UPI Correspondent

    UPI - Feb. 22, 2008

    Original URL


    WASHINGTON, Feb. 22 (UPI) -- The success of China's amended Energy Conservation Law, which goes into effect this April with stronger regulations for transportation and construction, and improved administrative oversight, remains dubious and depends on the nature of its implementation and enforcement.

    "I think they've made considerable progress. I see a real focus in this revised law on administration and supervision," said Barbara Finamore, director of the China Clean Energy project at the National Resource Defense Council and founder and board member of the China-U.S. Energy Efficiency Alliance. But, she added, "It all is going to depend on how well it is implemented."

    While per-capita energy demand in China, calculated in 2005 to be 1.31 tons of oil equivalent by the World Resources Institute, remains well below the 7.7 tons per capita that WRI attributes to the United States, total Chinese demand is swiftly catching up to the American standard. Moreover, 69 percent of Chinese consumption is accounted for by coal, one of the worst emitters of carbon dioxide.

    In light of these circumstances, China's 11th Five Year Plan mandates a 20-percent decrease in energy consumption and a 10-percent decrease in pollutants by 2010. Article Four of the revised Energy Conservation Law follows suit, labeling energy conservation a "top priority" and allotting it equal weight as energy development.

    The original ECL, which took effect in January 1999, made energy conservation a long-term national priority. Unfortunately, it "has not accomplished its goals very well," according to Wang Mingyuan, with the Center for Environmental, Natural Resources and Energy Law at Tsinghua University.

    According to Wang, the original law was debilitated in part by the Asian Financial Crisis, which depressed economic activity and thus energy demand. "Energy supply exceeded energy demanded at that time, so there was no incentive (to conserve)," he said last week at the Woodrow Wilson Center's China Environment Forum.

    Moreover, Wang said, the law itself was too narrow in scope and too reliant on principles, with what he characterized as a "weak operative nature." It failed to establish clear lines of jurisdiction and accountability, and provided little regulation for the transportation and construction sectors, both of which have expanded rapidly in the decade since.

    The revised ECL seeks to fill such holes, as well as provide guidelines for residential energy use. "It has new sections that call for individual metering of heat in residential buildings and charging according to actual use," said Finamore. Currently, residents are charged for energy use based on floor space and thus have little incentive to conserve.

    The revised law also establishes clearer jurisdiction and accountability. It creates an energy conservation administrative department under the State Council to be responsible for national administration and supervision, and mandates that provincial governments report their progress to the State Council annually. This represents significant pressure on the governors, said Wang.

    But despite these improvements, "We still face some original challenges," said Wang, who participated in the drafting of the law's amendments.
    Chief among such challenges are implementation and enforcement, said Finamore, who added that in some areas "what I see is that the draft revision was stronger than the final revision."

    For instance, she said, the draft revision stated that entities such as the Ministry of Construction and the Ministry of Transportation would be subject to the "direction" of the new energy conservation administrative department. The final draft states only that such entities must accept its "guidance."

    Moreover, while the law regulates transportation, such regulation is "similar in its level of detail as the original law," said Finamore. "It tells local governments, 'Yes, you should build public transportation,' but there's nothing in there providing incentives, or about planning requirements."

    She added that China lacks sufficient personnel trained to determine whether any of the new regulations are being met. "It's easy to go in and look at the thermostat," she said, "but is a building in compliance with the mandatory energy efficiency code? That's a lot more complicated. The key aspect of building code enforcement is that you have to train the inspectors so they know what to look for."

    Wang is more hopeful. "I'm optimistic about improved enforcement for this law," he said.

    One reason for his optimism is that the revised ECL makes energy efficiency an important factor in determining job performance at the local level. Economic growth has been the overriding criteria until now, leading local officials to high-profit, high-energy-use projects. "Energy conservation projects, in turn, were not so attractive for local officials," said Wang.

    Yet even if the law is fully implemented and enforced, it may not be enough.

    "The missing piece is financial incentives for going beyond what the standards require," said Finamore. The standards themselves, I'm glad they're mandatory, but because they're mandatory they have to be the lowest common denominator."

    Thus, she said, "even if the law were fully enforced, which depends on how much funding there is and how much detail they work out in terms of supporting regulation -- and that's all in question -- but even if they were able to do that, it's only going to go so far."

    © 2008 United Press International

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    Biofuels 'need strict standards'

    By Tim Hirsch - Environment reporter, Brasilia

    BBC - 22 February 2008

    Original URL

     

    Forest clearing in Indonesia (Getty Images)

    Strict benchmarks will help weed out unsound practices

    Biofuels: Quick guide

    Biofuels should only be produced if they meet strict environmental standards, an international group of lawmakers have concluded.

    The legislators said the fuels also had to deliver significant savings of greenhouse gas emissions.

    If such criteria were met, they said there should be an urgent review of the tariffs that currently block imports into markets such as the EU and US.

    The forum was hosted by Brazil, one of the world's biggest biofuel producers.

    Biofuels have become a highly controversial issue, with claims that the rapid expansion of energy crops could threaten global food security, and add further pressure to sensitive ecosystems including rainforests.

    It is also argued that in some cases the benefits to the climate of burning plant material instead of fossil fuels are outweighed by the energy needed to produce and transport biofuels, and by the release of carbon from soils by changes in land use.

    Strong growth

    The gathering of legislators from the Group of Eight (G8) richest economies and five key developing countries heard repeated claims from its Brazilian hosts, led by President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, that ethanol made from sugar cane was highly efficient.

    Wheat grains in farmer's hands (Image: PA)

    Biofuels can be made from wheat, rape seed and sugar cane

    They added that it could also be produced without serious negative impacts on ecosystems or threatening food supply.

    Brazil has been using ethanol to power its vehicles since the 1970s and is now hoping to reap major economic benefits from global demand for alternatives to oil.

    The meeting failed to agree a final policy statement on biofuels, with some delegations led by France and Germany reluctant to abandon trade restrictions before a system of strict certification of sustainability was in place.

    But there was consensus on the main elements of the tests that should be placed on biofuels.

    These included that they should not be made from materials grown on land with recognised value for biodiversity.

    Also, that the greenhouse gas emissions involved in their production and use should be significantly less than those produced by fossil fuels.

    That would place in doubt many fuels such as biodiesel from palm oil that has been implicated in the destruction of Indonesian rainforests.

    Many forms of biofuel production in colder countries would also be in doubt, where the energy benefits have been questioned.

    Although sugar cane is not grown in significant quantities in the Amazon region, some environmental groups will also question whether Brazilian ethanol would meet these criteria.

    Much of the recent expansion of sugar cane plantations has been in the highly bio-diverse savannah region of the country.

    Protest at Rotterdam port (Image: AFP)

    Activists claim the dash for biofuels is causing more harm than good

    The supporters of Brazilian ethanol argue, however, that huge areas of degraded cattle pasture are available to grow the crop, and that expansion of biofuel production does not require significant conversion of native ecosystems.

    The meeting also failed to agree a framework for a new global agreement on measures to tackle climate change beyond 2012, with the Chinese delegation apparently reluctant to pre-empt the position of its government in forthcoming negotiations.

    Lord Jay, the former head of the British Foreign Office, who had led the efforts to agree the framework, said there had been consensus over his claim that a massive increase was needed in the funds available to poorer countries to cope with the impacts of climate change.

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    Survival roadmap for climate change

    By Jayanta Basu

    The Telegraph - February 21 , 2008

    Original URL

     

    Calcutta is to have a “detailed, scientific plan” to combat the effects of climate changes, courtesy a World Bank initiative.

    A three-member team from the bank was in town recently to kick off the project, which will use a simulated model to predict Calcutta’s vulnerability to climate changes till 2050 and prepare a survival roadmap.

    “Calcutta is among the 10 cities in the world that are most vulnerable to climate changes. The Bengal government has okayed a World Bank proposal to launch an initiative to predict the changes,” said state environment secretary K.L. Meena.

    The Union ministry of environment and forests and the ministry of external affairs, too, are backing the project, partnered by the University of Tokyo and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation.

    The World Bank team was in talks with experts from the state pollution control board, Calcutta Municipal Corporation, Jadavpur University, Calcutta Metropolitan Development Authority and the Survey of India.

    The team sought information about the rainfall pattern, rise in the sea level and the temperature graph over the past 50 years; details of drainage, electricity and drinking water networks; and the location of thermal power plants, hospitals and defence facilities.

    “All these may have to be shifted over the next 50 years or so because of the climate change,” said an environment department official.

    “Calcutta is selected for its size (second largest city in India), the level of vulnerability because of its slum headcount (one third of its population) and the lives and livelihood at risk,” stated the draft concept note of World Bank.

    The note was prepared by the visiting team that included environment expert Adriana Jordanova. A report placed at the recent climate conference in Bali predicted that in 2070, Calcutta will be the worst sufferer of climate disruptions.

    “If everything goes according to plan, the team will make an interim presentation on Calcutta’s vulnerability at the G-8 meeting in Tokyo in May,” said an official.

    “A similar attempt was made earlier. But Calcutta Environment Management and Strategy Action Plan could not succeed because of faulty, secondary data. I hope this project will not meet with the same fate,” said an environmentalist.

    A similar project is on in some other South Asian cities, including Bangkok, Jakarta, Karachi and Ho Chi Minh City.

    Copyright © 2008 The Telegraph

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    UN environment group sets up climate neutral forum

    By Gerard Wynn

    AlertNews, Reuters - 21 Feb 2008

    Original URL

     

    MONACO, Feb 21 (Reuters) - The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) launched a new online network on Thursday to help countries, cities and firms aiming to be "climate neutral" exchange ideas on ways to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

    The Climate Neutral Network will connect people around the world who have committed to become climate neutral by reducing and offsetting their emissions of the gases blamed for heating the planet, said Achim Steiner, head of UNEP.

    "The idea is to share ideas," he said.

    UNEP, which is hosting 154-nation climate talks in Monaco, aims to be climate neutral itself in 2008, with the whole United Nations due to follow.

    Monaco said on Thursday it would become the fifth country to commit to carbon neutrality under the UNEP project, joining Costa Rica, Iceland, Norway and New Zealand.

    "We aim very quickly to come up with climate neutrality for the principality ... we are joining (the project) today," environment minister Robert Calcagno told reporters.

    Monaco, which famously hosts the high-octane Formula 1 motor-racing series each May, is making efforts to cut emissions by subsidising solar power, among other projects.

    Four cities in Sweden, Norway, China and Canada also joined the scheme on Thursday, and five companies.

    Pressure from investors and the public has prompted many cities and companies to commit to cutting emissions, but some dismiss carbon neutrality as a publicity stunt or "greenwash".

    Critics say carbon offsetting -- paying others to cut emissions on your behalf, for example by planting trees or building wind farms -- allow individuals, businesses and governments to avoid taking action themselves.

    Norway's environment minister Erik Solheim said on Thursday that his country could not achieve its target of being climate neutral by 2030 without using offsetting.

    "It's (offsetting) absolutely necessary," Solheim said.

    The Monaco climate conference is the biggest since December, when nearly 200 countries agreed in Bali, Indonesia to launch two-year talks on a successor to the Kyoto Protocol after 2012.

    UNEP's Steiner said the new online network, which can be found at www.unep.org/climateneutral, would help those talks.

    "As climate negotiations take place it's no reason to sit back and wait," he said.

    © Reuters Foundation 2002

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