Economists Ponder Human Adaptation to Climate Change
By Mark Whitehouse | The Wall Street Journal | JANUARY 3, 2010
As scientists struggle to predict exactly how global climate change will affect our environment, economists are grappling with another question: How well can humans adapt?
Judging from the history of wheat production in North America, the answer is very well, says Paul Rhode of the University of Michigan. In a paper done together with Alan Olmstead of the University of California-Davis, which he presented Sunday at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association, Mr. Rhode looks at how wheat production fared between the mid-1800s and the late 1900s, as production moved into parts of North America with harsher climates. The conclusion: Production adapted successfully as farmers introduced new strains that grew well in the new climates.
“We’ve been there and done that in terms of adjusting wheat production to new climates,” he said.
According to the paper, production proved resilient to temperature changes of as much as two to five degrees centigrade — similar to the changes scientists expect to occur over the next 90 years as a result of the proliferation of greenhouse gases.
To be sure, the results don’t demonstrate that humans as a whole can be better off in a warmer world, and don’t suggest that measures to combat global warming are unnecessary. For one, the data are limited to wheat production and to North America, where the impact of climate change on agriculture is likely to be less severe than in developing nations such as India. Beyond that, the changes in wheat production happened over a very long period. Farmers and seed breeders could have a much harder time adjusting to more rapid changes in climate.
Still, Mr. Rhode says the research suggests adaptability is a factor “that should not be discounted.”
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