boilingspot: Q&A: Mounting pressure in the lead-up to the Copenhagen conference

With the summit three weeks away, much depends on whether the US can negotiate its obstacles. What of the other nations?

Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent | guardian.co.uk | Tuesday 17 November 2009

What is the state of play for Copenhagen now?

Copenhagen is now viewed as the stage on which the rich nations, the rapidly emerging economies, and poor countries will commit to specific action on dealing with climate change – but will leave negotiators to iron out the legal details of a treaty later. "It is like a two-stage approach. We will get the substance in Copenhagen," said Janos Pasztor, climate change adviser to the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon. "Then within [some] months, the international community will agree on a legally binding treaty." But whether that scenario will play out depends alomost entirely on the US – as the world's largest historic polluter – announcing it will cut its own greenhouse gas emissions. With Copenhagen now just three weeks away, such a dramatic move remains very uncertain.

What is the challenge for Barack Obama?

Obama has said he wants to act on climate change, but the real authority to make the sweeping changes to America's economy rests with Congress. In June, the House of Representatives passed a bill proposing a 17% cut in greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 levels by 2020. But the effort is stalled in the Senate, with Democratic leaders pre-occupied with healthcare reform, rising unemployment, and the ballooning financial deficit. Some Democratic senators, especially from coal states, have warned they cannot support a move away from fossil fuels. If Obama gets ahead of the Senate at Copenhagen and commits to specific action, he risks provoking a backlash that could defeat the legislation needed to make it a reality. But if he does not commit, he risks collapsing the Copenhagen deal, and the international plan to tackle global warming, returning America to the status of environmental villain it bore under George Bush.

What about the US midterm elections?

Democratic leaders say the Senate must pass climate change bill by spring 2010, if there is to be any US legislation at all. Democrats from coal and old industry states will be cautious about signing up to sweeping energy and climate laws in the run-up to midterm elections in November 2010. The oil, coal and manufacturing lobbies have been spending millions to frame the proposed laws as measures that will fuel unemployment and increase home heating bills. "Conventional wisdom is that you have until the spring to get controversial issues moving," the senator Ben Cardin, the Maryland Democrat who helped write a climate change proposal before the Senate, told the trade publication ClimateWire.

What are others doing?

America may be paralysed, but industrialised and rapidly emerging economies are signing up to action on climate change. South Korea offered today to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 4% from 2005 levels by 2020 – even though it was not obliged to do so under the Kyoto treaty. Last week, Brazil offered to reduce its projected emission levels by at least 36% by 2020 – the first major developing country to make a specific commitment to alter its course of development. Among industrialised countries, Japan offered to cut emissions by 25% over 1990 levels by 2020 in September. The European Union has said it will deepen its emissions cut target to 30% over 1990 levels by 2020 if there is a deal in Copenhagen.

What is China's role?

China as the world's biggest current polluter is critical to any climate change treaty. President Hu Jintao has committed to reducing future emissions – but has yet to come up with a figure. Revealing that figure – possibly a roughly 50% cut in carbon intensity – would be a pivotal moment, piling pressure on the US. But it is not clear whether China will support America and other countries in seeking a meaningful political deal at Copenhagen. China has said it might sign on to a "political deal" at Copenhagen, if rich countries make specific commitments to cut their emissions. But China is also aware of the obstacles facing Obama. Today's visit by Obama has also helped expand co-operation on energy and technology that is potentially valuable to Beijing.

What happens next?

Environment ministers are winding up their last big meeting before Copenhagen today. In the next few weeks, negotiators hope to see more countries make specific commitments on cutting or curbing emissions. There is also mounting pressure on developed countries – especially America – to propose a figure on funding to help the developing world adapt to climate change. India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh, will visit the White House on 24 November. A partnership on energy could also help to persuade India to agree to specific targets for reducing its emissions in the future.