Recession has taken toll on alternative energy
David R. Baker, Chronicle Staff Writer, San Fransisco Chronicle, Tuesday, March 10, 2009
The report by the Clean Edge research firm shows the alternative energy industry at a turning point in 2008.
After years of rapid growth fueled by rising oil prices and fears of global warming, the industry was finally making serious cash. Green businesses were hiring, with solar and wind companies accounting for a total of 600,000 jobs worldwide, according to the report.
But as 2008 wore on, the world slid deeper into recession, the oil market crashed and banks stopped lending to green startups. As a result, the report's authors expect the industry's sales to flatline or fall slightly in 2009. And some green-tech companies won't live to see 2010.
"This is going to be an extraordinarily challenging year, and there's no question there's going to be a shakeout," said Joel Makower, one of the report's authors and a co-founder of Clean Edge. "It's really unfortunate timing, just at the point when clean energy has been reaching critical mass."
Makower and the report's other authors don't expect the alternative energy business to wither away. President Obama's economic stimulus package devotes more than $70 billion to clean energy and transportation. The administration also appears determined to put a price on greenhouse gas emissions, potentially making fossil fuels more expensive to burn.
"If it were just about oil prices, some of these companies would be in real trouble," said Clean Edge co-founder Ron Pernick, another of the report's authors. "But it's not."
Once the financial crisis ends, Pernick expects the industry's growth to resume, albeit at a slower pace. The report projects that by 2018, revenue from solar power, wind power and biofuel companies will hit $325.1 billion, and the three sectors will produce 2.7 million jobs.
Their growth in recent years has been substantial.
Worldwide revenue for wind power companies jumped 71 percent from 2007 to 2008, reaching $51.4 billion.
Biofuel revenues surged 37 percent, to hit $34.8 billion. More than 19 billion gallons of ethanol and biodiesel were produced worldwide, according to the report.
Photovoltaic solar power sales, including the equipment and installation, rose 46 percent to $29.6 billion.
By 2018, Clean Edge predicts that revenues will hit $139.1 billion for wind, $105.4 billion for biofuels and $80.6 billion for photovoltaic solar.
As large as those numbers are, they still represent just a fraction of the world's energy market. For example, 2008 revenue for just one oil company, Exxon Mobil Corp., hit $477.4 billion.
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