Financial crisis darkens outlook for climate talks
AFP, 6 Oct 2008
PARIS (AFP) — Wall Street's sickness and its contagiousness for the world economy are bad news for the already faltering effort to craft a new pact to tackle climate change.
Tighter budgets, shrinking corporate profits and worries about jobs could crimp manoeuvering room at upcoming UN talks on toughening curbs on greenhouse-gas emissions, sources say.
But -- so far, at least -- the crisis does not appear to be having an impact on investment in clean technology, say these sources. Indeed, some are confident that spending on wind, solar and other renewables may even rise.
Running in Poznan, Poland, from December 1-12, the talks are a stepping stone towards a treaty to brake emissions from fossil fuels beyond 2012 and support developing countries in climate change's firing line.
But curbing pollution and stumping up money for the poor entails economic sacrifice. And the financial hurricane that swept through New York last month and now buffets the real economy could sap some of the will to make it.
"When growth is strong, it's easier to handle differences [at the negotiating table] than when growth is weak," said Jean-Charles Hourcade, director of a French think thank, the International Centre for Research on the Environment and Development (Cired).
Steve Sawyer, secretary general of a Brussels-based industry group, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), predicted some governments might invoke the crisis to tiptoe away from their commitments.
"Some politicians will try to use the current crisis and seemingly inevitable slowdown to draw attention away from their failure to act on future and current commitments," he said.
"But regardless of what politicians believe at any given moment, global warming is in fact a challenge that cannot be ducked."
Officially, at least, the European Union (EU) -- the most ambitious of the economic powers on climate change -- says it will not weaken on its pledges.
The EU intends to cut its emissions by 20 percent from 1990 levels by 2020, and to deepen this to 30 percent if the United States or other big economy follows suit.
"There is an economic crisis, a financial crisis, an energy crisis and there is a climate crisis," EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas said last Wednesday.
"The climate crisis is permanent. All the other crises today, tomorrow, I hope will pass but the climate crisis is a permanent threat for the globe."
With President George W. Bush's authority seeping away ahead of his departure from office, eyes in Poznan will be on an expected "shadow" US delegation, named by the winner of the November election to the White House.
Both Barack Obama and John McCain have called climate change a priority. Both favour cutting US emissions by 2020 and deepening them by 2050, and want a cap-and-trade system to achieve this, something which Bush has bitterly opposed.
Sawyer said that guiding an emissions bill through Congress will be "a long, protracted battle."
"For the moment, everything is taking a back burner to the credit crisis, which could slow down an already difficult process," he said.
Thirty years ago, a turndown in the world economy drove down the price of oil, sandbagging early hopes for renewable energy, whose fortunes had risen during the second energy shock of the late 1970s.
Several experts questioned by AFP were confident renewables would not repeat this rise and fall.
Renewables have already got a foothold, which may slip a little in the short term but would endure in the long term, they argued.
Demand by Asia's emerging giants and more limited oil supplies would keep oil prices relatively high, thus maintaining an incentive for cleaner sources.
In addition, Europe and the United States were now keen on renewables, which are home-procured, for easing their energy dependence on the Middle East and Russia.
New, cleaner technologies are therefore a good investment, easing geopolitical worries, creating jobs and reducing carbon emissions, according to this argument.
"There is a risk that we might lose a few years. Lots of people think only in the short term," said Oliver Schaefer of the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC).
"But I am hopeful, because we have illustrations to show that investing in the environment is now an opportunity rather than a cost. That wasn't the case 10 years ago."
Brice Lalonde, France's ambassador at the climate talks, said the financial crisis "may have an impact on available finance" but also opened the way to an era of smarter economic growth.
"It may have a positive impact, in the sense that, to get out of the crisis, we invest in the fight against climate change, because it leads to a new form of development, a new demand for new technologies, a new generation of towns, cars, and so on."
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