El Nino's wrath seen muted in Asia, sparing crops

By Sambit Mohanty - Wed Oct 11, 2006 1:01 AM ET

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The rise of the 'little' one out of the warm Pacific waters might not be so menacing for Asian farmers this time around.

The much-feared El Nino, which means "little boy" in Spanish, is now forming in equatorial waters of the Pacific, raising fears of past events which triggered drought in Asia and downpours in the Americas.

But the event is unlikely to be as severe as the one in 1997-98, according to weather officials, which would be a relief to the coffee, cocoa, and grain farmers in Southeast Asia.

"It's likely to be a weak El Nino and is expected to affect only the central and eastern regions of Indonesia," Ati Wasiati, director of crop protection at the country's agriculture ministry, told Reuters.

"It's not that there will be a drought but we will probably get less rains in the next season," he added.

El Nino is an abnormal warming of the waters in the Pacific and was first noticed by 19th century fishermen in South America who would see the anomaly peak around Christmas.

A severe El Nino would typically cause drought in Southeast Asia and Australia, and provoke floods in Ecuador, Peru and Chile, followed by heavy rain in Los Angeles and California.

The 1997-98 El Nino struck Asia at the height of the financial meltdown and sparked widespread forest fires, adding to the strains on the economies in Southeast Asia.

It was the worst El Nino on record, killing more than 2,000 people and causing property damage worth an estimated $33 billion.

CRUCIAL MONTHS AHEAD

The worst of this El Nino would likely be felt from November to March and include drier-than-average weather over most of Malaysia and Indonesia, according to the U.S. government's Climate Prediction Center.

In 1997 and 1998, Indonesia had to buy corn from world markets after domestic supplies fell sharply. Cocoa output fell 30 percent and the coffee crop was also hit.

"But so far, there's nothing to worry with this condition as other main producing regions, like in Java and Sumatra, will have a normal rainy season starting end of this month," Wasiati said.

In Vietnam there is strong possibility that the El Nino could curtail rains in the Central Highlands by the end of December, according to the country's Hydro Meteorology Institute. But the impact would be only on next year's crop.

The Central Highlands produces about 80 percent of Vietnam's total coffee output, most of which is the robusta variety. The Mekong delta accounts for half of Vietnam's rice output.

In 1998, the El Nino pared Vietnam's coffee crop by more than 5 percent.

Australia is already in the midst of a severe drought, which has slashed the country's wheat output by half to below 12 million tonnes and pushed up world wheat prices to their highest levels in a decade.

But if El Nino were to strike in the next few months, Australia's eastern crops, including corn and sunflower, would be the hardest hit.

"The winter crop's pretty much done. So an El Nino will have little bearing on the current crop," said agricultural consultant Brian Bailey of Australian Crop Forecasters.

"It would first have an impact on the summer cropping areas. If the El Nino remained through April and prevented sowings, then it would hit the winter crops," Bailey said.

But not every country in Asia is expecting a negative impact from El Nino.

The event would have a positive impact on India's Northeast monsoon, bringing plentiful showers to the southern regions of the country and also to Sri Lanka, according to M. Rajeevan, a senior official at the India Meteorological Department.

"It will have a good impact on the rice crop in the region," he added.

(Additional reporting by Ho Binh Minh in Hanoi, Yoga Rusmana in Jakarta, Rene Pastor in New York, Hari Ramachandran in New Delhi, James Regan in Sydney and Vissuta Pothong in Bangkok)

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